A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
