Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
